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Mortgage balances grew by 3% annually in Q2, the second slowest quarterly pace since 2000.
This portends a further dip in household debt-to-income ratios—welcome news, as elevated leverage drives household financial vulnerability. The central bank is widely expected to continue to cut the overnight policy rate at the remaining meetings this year and well into 2025. Monetary policy remains highly restrictive, with the policy rate at 4.5%, well above the 2.5% inflation rate.
We believe interest rates will continue to fall as the overnight rate heads for 2.75%. By later this year, housing activity is likely to pick up gradually.
In the meantime, Canadian homebuilding remains sturdy despite softness in the resale market and ongoing capacity pressures. Housing starts surged again in July. The data series is volatile, but the trend is strong at just under its recent all-time highs posted in 2021. The strength of residential starts has been dominated by multi-unit construction, while single-family starts have historically been very weak.
The home construction sector has suffered ongoing capacity pressures, including a shortage of construction workers, zoning restrictions and supply bottlenecks. These capacity pressures have delayed housing completions, bringing the number of dwellings under construction to fresh record highs.
Homebuilding has remained remarkably resilient, albeit at a much slower pace than the torrid population growth. The government plans to cool the growth in temporary immigration, but the Bank of Canada recently suggested that the slowdown is likely to be delayed and smaller than originally projected.
Meanwhile, Canadian labour markets are easing. Job vacancy rates have plunged, and unemployment has risen, especially for young workers and new immigrants.
Economic growth has slowed to about 1% this year and will pick up only moderately next year. Inflation is falling without a recession. To be sure, some sectors have slowed meaningfully, especially manufacturing. Canadian businesses are bracing for billions of dollars in losses if the country’s two national railways shut down this week.
More than 9,000 workers at Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. could either be on strike or locked out if no labour agreement is reached by Thursday, disrupting the supply chain industries.
Housing markets will begin to recover as lower interest rates do their job this fall.
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