| New Listings
The number of newly listed homes climbed a further 7.5% to set a new record in March. With February’s big rebound, new supply is up more than 25% in the last two months.
With the rebound in new supply outpacing recent sales gains, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased back to 80.5% in March compared to a peak level of 90.9% set in January. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.4%, so it is currently still very high historically. The good news is it appears to be moving in the right direction finally.
Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, less than 20% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in March, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other 80%+ of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above. The first three months of 2021 and the second half of 2020 have seen record numbers of markets in seller’s market territory. For reference, the pre-COVID record of only around 55% of all markets in seller’s territory was set back at the beginning of 2002.
The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between sales and the supply of listings. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. There were only 1.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of March 2021 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. The long-term average for this measure is a little over five months.
Home Prices
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) climbed by 3.1% m-o-m in March 2021 – similar to but slightly less than the record gain in February.
While price growth remains the largest in the single-family home space, the pace of those gains decelerated in March while price gains in the more affordable townhome and apartment segments continued to pick up steam. Of the 41 markets now tracked by the index, all but one were up on a m-o-m basis.
The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 20.1% on a y-o-y basis in March. Based on data back to 2005, this was a record y-o-y increase, surpassing the previous record of 18.6% set back in April 2017.
The largest y-o-y gains continue to be posted across Ontario, followed by markets in B.C., Quebec and New Brunswick, then by single-digit gains in the Prairie provinces and Newfoundland and Labrador.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was a record $716,828 in March 2021, up 31.6% from the same month last year. That said, it is important note that the biggest increase in new supply and thus sales in March was in Greater Vancouver, which raised that market’s share of national activity to its highest level in almost four years.
Detailed home price data by region is reported in the table below: |