Canadian Employment Rises More Than Expected, But Not Enough To Fully Offset Prior Two-Month Job Loss
By Scott Westlake
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Canadian Employment Rises More Than Expected, But Not Enough To Fully Offset Prior Two-Month Job Loss
Today's Labour Force Survey for September was stronger than expected, with a net employment gain of 60,400, but the unemployment rate was steady at 7.1% as more people entered the workforce. The employment gain was driven by full-time work. The manufacturing sector--hard hit by US tariffs--added 27,800 employees, and agriculture, health care and other services all added workers. The employment rate — the proportion of the working-age population that's employed — rose 0.1 percentage points to 60.6% in September.

Average hourly wages among employees increased 3.3% (+$1.17 to $36.78) on a year-over-year basis in September, following growth of 3.2% in August (not seasonally adjusted).

The surprisingly strong job gains suggest Canada's job market is showing some resilience to tariff disputes with the US. The jump in factory employment, although not driven by autos, suggests the sector may benefit from some exporters' exemption from levies under the Canada-US-Mexico trade Agreement.

The loonie surged in response to the news as shorter-term interest rates rose. The report reduces expectations for a rate cut when the Bank of Canada meets again on October 29, with traders putting the odds at about 25%, down from 70% before the data release. However, the better-than-expected job gains did not fully offset the losses posted in July and August, as Canada shed a net 45,900 jobs over the third quarter, the weakest quarter since the pandemic.

Total hours worked fell 0.2% last month, and the labour force rose by 72,300.

Even with the latest jobs report, the Canadian economy remains vulnerable to the unsettling US attitude towards the free trade agreement, which is slated to be renegotiated by July 2026. The Bank of Canada cut the overnight policy rate to 2.5% in September, and additional rate cuts are likely this year. The Bank has only two more decision dates in 2025: October 29 and December 10. September inflation data will be released on October 21, the day after the BoC publication of the Business and Consumer Outlook Survey. 

The overall unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1% in September, following a 0.2 percentage point increase in August. Since the start of 2025, the unemployment rate has increased by 0.5 percentage points. The trend has generally been upward since the beginning of the year, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to January. Youth unemployment rates remain elevated, with the jobless rate among students at a whopping 17.1%, and at 11.9% for youth not attending school.

Employment in manufacturing rose in September (+28,000; +1.5%), the first increase since January. The gain was concentrated in Ontario (+12,000) and Alberta (+7,900). Before the rise in September, employment in manufacturing had recorded a net decline of 58,000 (-3.1%) from January to August.

Chart 3 Chart 3: Employment change by industry, September 2025
Employment change by industry, September 2025


Chart 3: Employment change by industry, September 2025

In Quebec, employment was little changed for a third consecutive month in September. The unemployment rate in Quebec in September (5.7%) was down from the recent peak of 6.3% recorded in June, and little changed on a year-over-year basis. However, Quebec will undoubtedly see job losses in the aluminum and lumber industries unless US tariffs are reduced sharply.

Employment was also little changed in Ontario in September. The unemployment rate in the province increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9% in September, as more people searched for work. The unemployment rate in the province was up 0.8 percentage points from September 2024. In the CMA of Toronto, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.9% in September 2025 and was up 0.8 percentage points on a year-over-year basis (three-month moving averages).
Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has made it clear that it will focus on inflation as well as on increasing slack in the economy, and a September cut may still hinge on the consumer price index released next week. Labour markets are still softer than they were a year ago. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% in September, but it remains up half a percent from a year ago. International trade data softened in August, and U.S. tariffs remain a significant threat to the economic outlook. 

It is doubtful that Bank of Canada policymakers thought in September that just one cut in the overnight rate would be enough to address economic weakness, and the labour force data today probably isn’t positive enough alone to derail another cut in October.  Still, the Bank of Canada will also have to take into account the next round of inflation data – and future cuts beyond October would be less likely if government deficit spending ramps up as expected to help address tariff-related economic weakness.

The central bank is well aware that the Labour Force Survey is notoriously volatile, and the jobless rate at 7.1% is still up half a percentage point from a year ago. The underlying details of the report were not as positive. Actual hours worked declined despite the surge in full-time employment. And permanent layoffs ticked higher. But other sectors have remained broadly resilient. Services employment was up 18k month-over-month and 225k year-over-year last month. All eyes will be on the CPI data next Tuesday. 

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Scott Westlake The Westlake Team FC Dominion Lending Centres
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